Lessons that China learnt from the Ladakh standoff - Pragnya IAS Academy - News Analysis.

Lessons that China learnt from the Ladakh standoff.

Everyone’s favourite subject these days is the Ladakh standoff and the current status of the agreement to disengage and de-escalate. The reading public is getting a surfeit of fairly good strategic literature to remain well informed.

Most issues revolve around the trust deficit with China, the possibility that Beijing will pause and recommence a standoff at some other point of the long border with India, and the need for our nation to develop its infrastructure and its armed forces to match that of its northern neighbour in the eventuality of serious exchanges across the border.

The one issue very few are looking at is the host of lessons that China would have drawn from this standoff and will no doubt analyse very deeply for the future.

It must start with the word being bandied around the most—‘trust’. By agreeing to a special engagement between Prime Minister Narendra Modi and President Xi Jinping to guide their militaries after Doklam in 2017, and then deliberately undertaking a mission to create border tension, China lost not only India’s trust but that of much of the world. There is a difference between military and political trust. For the military, deception is something to always expect as part of the profession, but international norms dictate something else when it comes to political trust.

Leaders of nations as big and important as China and India, both members of some exclusive international groupings such as BRICS and SCO, cannot depart from understandings and agreements or use these to create military deception.

Indian analysts must emphasise this to the world and place moral pressure on China, which will need to find better ways of dealing with nations that it clearly cannot bully on the basis of some presumptions. Will China attempt to create trust and reliability through greater predictability in the future? The nature of its relationship with India and its geostrategic perceptions of India’s potential threats to Chinese interests may force it to look for alternate ways of conflict initiation while retaining international credibility.

China could attempt to take some measures to show how sensitive it is to ensuring implementation of agreements. The rapid disengagement in Ladakh appears to project this as visible proof of it. Yet we should also expect that attempts to embroil India and paint it as the villain will probably gain more ground in the future.

It should be reasonably clear to China that its ability to use coercion to dictate terms to India and caution it against joining anti-China strategic equations is quite limited. In messaging the world and India on China’s apparent superior military capability, it would realise that it needs to do much more and perhaps run the risk of going over the top in situations in which it may have little control. With India mirroring China’s deployment in Eastern Ladakh, the latter did not resort to opening other fronts, indicating a deep caution against over-commitment. This is what also happened at Nathu La (1967), Sumdorong Chu (1986) and Doklam (2017)—China preferred to keep the standoffs localised. Will it do anything different the next time? It has an untested set of armed forces that was bested by Vietnam the last time it fought conventionally. Demonstration of its optimum ability in an all-out war is fraught with unacceptable risk; the PLA will need to find innovative means of conflict initiation on multiple fronts without resorting to full war and hope to achieve its aims.

If China’s aim was to dent India’s strategic confidence, it would have realised that it will take much more than just a standoff and border friction. In 1969, it had border friction with the then Soviet Union. The Soviets, renowned for their use of massed artillery, fired one of history’s biggest crunches of multi-barrel rocket artillery on the PLA; it was at Damansky Island in the Ussuri River, a salvo so big that the flow of the Ussuri changed after the explosions. It was China that learnt its lessons from it and went on to create artillery with one of the largest missiles and rocket forces. It would recall that never again after 1969 did the PLA engage with the Soviets or later just the Russians.

Would it attempt to use these tactics against India in a future standoff: striking with rockets and missiles to cause extensive casualties on Indian soldiers and warfighting wherewithal without crossing the LAC? It is food for thought because our ability to respond and neutralise remains relatively weak.

China would have observed the growing strength of information operations and influence warfare in current-day standoffs. It is almost 30 years since it adopted ‘war under informationised conditions’. The rising tide of alternatives to conventional war will no doubt tempt the Chinese to experiment in areas where deniability is high; that includes facets of hybrid war. In the current situation, I did expect it to use various shades of grey zone warfare, resort to enhanced cultivation of separatist trends in the Northeast and use its media to brand India the villain. It did not. That could be a lesson for its future strategy: that it is easier to employ indirect threats and resort to direct confrontation only when the stage is set for enhanced hybridity.

Two significant issues remain: first Pakistan and second the maritime zone. Very briefly, China will realise that initiating the Ladakh standoff without directly involving Pakistan has led to the creation of the following perception in Indian military circles—that India’s focus must go to the northern borders with China, with Pakistan the second priority.

Will China wish to create a greater dilemma for the Indian leadership by getting Pakistan to use its calibration capability to ratchet up the threats in J&K and the western borders? We may need to brace for that even though Pakistan has very little capability to do China’s bidding. On the maritime front, much has been written and spoken about the Quad and how it received a new lease due to the Ladakh standoff.

China will try to find the strategic diplomatic leverage to prevent the actualisation of the Quad, which is clearly not in the interests of Beijing’s bid to contest the Indo Pacific. Seeking to appease Australia and raising Russian doubts about India’s strategic partnership with the US are two domains that it can use effectively. (Source: defencenews.in)

The above Article can also be read using the link below:

Lessons that China learnt from the Ladakh standoff.

China funding airbase near Gwadar to block oil supply from W Asia to India - Pragnya IAS Academy - News Analysis.

China funding airbase near Gwadar to block oil supply from W Asia to India.

China is funding development of an airbase near Gwadar port in Balochistan styled as Gwadar International airport for containing Indian Ocean Region (IOR) strategy of India and disrupting the oil supply lines from the Middle East to Indian shores.

The airbase will also help China in keeping an eye on Chabahar port of Iran where India has sanctioned USD 14 million for development of the port, sources tracking the development said.

The construction of the airbase began in January this year and the project is scheduled to be completed by the year end in December, they said.

The move, the sources further said, is also aimed at counterbalancing operationalisation of the Sukhoi base in Thanjavur, Tamil Nadu by India. The Thanjavur air base is used for patrolling the Indian Ocean and also conduct joint exercises with the Australian and Japanese air forces. The base also gives leverage to India in patrolling the sea lanes through fighter jets on the oil and goods business supply routes between the Gulf nations and China.

The under-construction Gwadar airbase is designed to land heavy military transport aircraft.

As of now, Gwadar airport is dubbed as a transport base for heavy lift aircraft and military landings have not been specifically outlined but such runways are also capable of facilitating fighter jets’ landings.

The heavy military transport aircraft can also help Beijing in shipping men and military machines at short notice to check any major disruption in the China-Pakistan Economic Corridor (CPEC) that faces constant threat from the Baloch nationalists.

In the backdrop of the US administration under Joe Biden granting relaxations to sanctions clamped by his predecessor Donald Trump against Teheran, the Gwadar airbase can also be potentially exploited by the Iranians to smuggle in uranium and enrichment technology from China as there is no visa regime between Pakistan and Iran.

Amid India developing the Chabahar port in Iran which is close to the Gwadar port under Pakistani control, Beijing aims to counter Indian dominance in the IOR by keeping tabs on movements in the sea up to Mumbai where the ports receive hydrocarbon supplies from the Gulf countries.

To camouflage the Chinese game plan, the Gwadar airport is dubbed as a civilian facility while its construction is currently in full swing. (Source: defencenews.in)

The above Article can also be read using the link below:

China funding airbase near Gwadar to block oil supply from W Asia to India.

Will a new road between China and Pakistan lead to a military boost against India? - Pragnya IAS Academy - News Analysis

Will a new road between China and Pakistan lead to a military boost against India?.

Pakistan is looking to develop new overland border crossings with China that would potentially boost the allies’ military interoperability against Indian forces in Ladakh and the rest of Kashmir.

Proposals floated this month by the government of the Pakistan-administered Gilgit-Baltistan (GB) region primarily aim to pave the way for a new transit and trade route between China and Pakistan’s neighbours Afghanistan and Iran.

Currently, China and Pakistan are connected only by the Karakoram Highway, completed in 1978, via a single crossing in the Khunjerab Pass.

However, the route of a proposed new border road from Yarkand – on GB’s border with the Xinjiang Uygur autonomous region – also suggests strong strategic motivations because it would open a new supply line from China to Pakistani forces deployed along the Line of Control (LOC).

The 740km LOC divides Kashmir roughly into two halves governed by India and Pakistan. Its northernmost point, the India-held Siachen Glacier, is located next to the western extreme of the disputed 3,488km China-India border known as the Line of Actual Control (LAC).

The GB government’s public works department was instructed on January 15 to prepare a “project concept clearance proposal” for a 10-metre-wide road capable of being used by trucks, from the Mustagh Pass on the border with the Xinjiang Uygur autonomous region via the eastern GB region of Skardu, where the Siachen Glacier is located.

The proposed new road would be linked to Yarkand in Xinjiang, and enter GB 126km west of Ladakh, crossing the major supply artery from the Karakoram Highway near Skardu city. From there, it would run south through the high-altitude Deosai Plateau to the Astore Valley, where the southern flank of GB meets the LOC amid the Himalayas.

In a video posted on social media platforms this month, GB chief minister Khalid Khurshid announced plans to drill a road tunnel through the mountains to connect Astore to the Neelum Valley in the Azad Kashmir region, where much of the LOC is thinly demarcated by the Neelum and Jhelum rivers.

The tunnel would be built with the help of Chinese engineering firms, because their Pakistani counterparts lack the expertise.

ALARM BELLS

Washington-based analyst Sameer Lalwani told This Week In Asia there were potentially three logistics and strategic effects of enhanced China-Pakistan connectivity.

“It could deepen trade links by enhancing transport capacity; enable great Pakistan military mobility in any contingency, threatening India’s hold over the Siachen Glacier; and it can even facilitate greater China-Pakistan military coordination that generates peacetime dilemmas and wartime complications for India,” he said.

The proposed Xinjiang-GB-Kashmir road would “certainly ring alarm bells in New Delhi, which has been acutely sensitive to deepening China-Pakistan strategic and military ties over the past decade”, said Lalwani, who is director of the South Asia programme at the Stimson Center, a Washington-based think tank.

“It may also result in the Indian military – which has already sunk considerable resources to retain control of Siachen – concentrating an even greater proportion of money, manpower, and materiel to its continental defences at the expense of maritime power projection,” he said.

The GB government’s decision to initiate work on the new road between Xinjiang and Kashmir is the latest in a series of developments triggered by New Delhi’s August 2019 decision to rescind India-administered Kashmir’s semi-autonomous status under the Indian constitution.

The move saw the region split into two union territories, Kashmir and Ladakh, fuelling tensions with Pakistan and China, their respective counter-claimants.

Forces from China’s People’s Liberation Army (PLA) subsequently seized 103 square kilometres of India-held territory in Ladakh last year, while Pakistan revised its official map to lay claim to all of Kashmir.

In November, Pakistan’s Prime Minister Imran Khan announced that GB would be granted provisional provincial status.

Khan’s Pakistan Tehreek-e-Insaf party won elections held in GB that month, and its new administration there has vowed to embark on a series of development projects aimed at leveraging the region’s position as the cross-border hub for the China-Pakistan Economic Corridor (CPEC).

Since the CPEC’s launch in 2015, some US$28 billion of power generation, motorway and mass transit projects have been built in Pakistan by Chinese state-owned enterprises, ending crippling power shortages and vastly improving its logistical infrastructure.

As part of Beijing’s Belt and Road Initiative, the 15-year CPEC programme was envisioned as a means of integrating the Chinese and Pakistani economies with a view to developing a trade and investment corridor with the Middle East via the Chinese-operated Pakistani port of Gwadar.

‘STRATEGIC OR SECURITY SUPPORT’

Mustafa Hyder, executive director of the Pakistan-China Institute in Islamabad, said “the plan has always been for the CPEC to serve as one corridor with multiple passages”.

“When you talk of the Mustagh Pass or other routes, these are part of the multiple passages which define the CPEC,” he said.

The proposed road from Yarkand to Neelum Valley is part of the historic Silk Road that China has sought to revive under the belt and road plan. Until glaciers blocked the Mustagh Pass in the 1890s, it served as a trade route between Tibet and India.

After much of the Karakoram Highway was upgraded under the CPEC’s first five-year phase, Hyder said “it is only natural that other routes that supplement the Karakoram Highway will come about because the local population and business community of GB foresee a lot of prospective business with China, in which they can be a stakeholder”.

The proposal for the new road was first floated in 2016 during a meeting in Skardu between influential residents and a Chinese delegation.

While conceived as an economic development project, the new China-Pakistan route and other intra-Pakistan connectivity projects “are certainly going to cater to the core interests of Pakistan”, Hyder said.

“If those core interests include strategic or security support to protect Pakistan or China’s sovereignty and security, those roads will certainly be used, if and when need be – and they should be used,” he said.

“The Ladakh stand-off has upped the ante in South Asia. When we talk about the India-China confrontation, particularly post-Ladakh stand-off, the skirmishes between the two sides have alerted neighbouring countries … to the expansionist designs of India, which is being backed by Washington to counter and contain China, and also because of the CPEC, which is seen as a project that needs to be truncated or sabotaged.”

In the video posted online, GB chief minister Khurshid said his administration would also build a westbound highway linking the Karakoram Highway from GB to Chitral, a district of Pakistan’s Khyber Pakhtunkhwa province that straddles the Wakhan Corridor, a sliver of Afghanistan that also borders China and Tajikistan.

The Chinese army has since 2018 stationed troops at a dedicated military base in Tajikistan situated 12km from the corridor, and has conducted joint patrols and counterterrorism operations with Afghan security forces to prevent infiltration by militant Uygur groups.

NATURAL PARTNER

Few members of the separatist Turkestan Islamic Party remain in Afghanistan, after hundreds of militants relocated to Syria following the outbreak of civil war there in 2011 to join al-Qaeda and Islamic State militias that have since been defeated.

In recent CPEC joint working-group meetings, discussions between China and Pakistan have progressed on the development of a highway between Chitral and Chakdara, where it would connect to an existing motorway that culminates near Rashakai, home to the top-priority CPEC special economic zone.

From there, it is a short drive to Peshawar and the Khyber Pass into Afghanistan.

“Afghanistan is a natural partner for Pakistan, so we can see multiple opportunities emerging as the infrastructure improves,” said Hyder of the Pakistan-China Institute.

Likewise, Pakistan is moving ahead with upgrades for the highways connecting Peshawar to Gwadar, as well as two motorways that will complete its nationwide network by 2024.

Pakistan is currently fencing its western border with Afghanistan and Iran, along which it will open dedicated crossings to promote legitimate cross-border trade as a replacement for the large-scale smuggling that has been prevalent along the porous boundaries for decades.

Michael Kugelman, senior South Asia associate at The Wilson Center in Washington, said both China and Pakistan had powerful economic motivations for pursuing new connectivity projects.

“With China having controlled the pandemic and showing signs of an economic recovery, it has a strong incentive to roll up its sleeves and focus on new infrastructure projects. The idea is to enhance connectivity efforts, but also to better enable China to project power, especially with an eye towards its nearby rival India,” he said.

“For China’s ally Pakistan, which is keen to push back against India and to see the emergence of new infrastructure in a key strategic space, this is just what the doctor ordered – so long as it’s happy with the financing terms of these projects.”

Pakistan expects its deepening alliance with China to figure prominently in forthcoming talks with the newly installed United States administration led by President Joe Biden.

“The first thing we want to talk about is investment partnerships,” Pakistan’s national security adviser Moeed Yusuf said last week at an online event organised by The Wilson Center.

“This conversation about CPEC is not always positive in Washington – how about an American reprocessing zone? How about American companies coming, investing money, reprocessing for export and sending [goods] wherever they want. How about doing things economically where there can be Pakistan-US-China co-investment?”

Yusuf said Pakistan had rejected the idea of being a member of either the American or Chinese camps as the rivals continue to jostle for supremacy.

“It doesn’t make sense for us to say I’m with one and not the other. Neither, frankly, [have] the Chinese ever asked us that, or the US for that matter,” he said. (Source: pib)

The above Article can also be read using the link below:

Will a new road between China and Pakistan lead to a military boost against India?.

China’s border disputes with neighbouring countries to divert public dissent on domestic fronts - Pragnya IAS Academy - News Analysis.

China’s border disputes with neighbouring countries to divert public dissent on domestic fronts.

China is known for creating border disputes with its neighbours with every possible means it can. Unilaterally renaming the territories in Chinese, even where it has absolutely no claim, is perhaps one of the oldest tricks in the sleeves of China for creating pseudo disputes in its neighbourhood. Such efforts have intensified under the rule of the expansionist President Xi Jinping. Over the past few years, it has renamed around 80 sea-bed islands and reefs in the South China Sea.

China’s Ministry of Civil Affairs on December 23, 2020 reported the name-game played by it in Arunachal Pradesh in 2017 as an important achievement of Xi Jinping’s administration during the 13th Five Year Plan (2016-2020). China’s state-run Global Times tabloid reported on April 18,2017 that the Civil Affairs Ministry had “standardized in Chinese characters, Tibetan (dialect) and Roman alphabet, the names of six places in ‘South Tibet’, which India calls ‘Arunachal Pradesh’, in accordance with the regulations of the State Council”.

The tabloid reported six Chinese names of places in Arunachal Pradesh, without giving any reference to their locations. These names were Wo’gyainling, Mila Ri, Qoidengarbo Ri, Mainquka, Biimo La and Namkapub Ri. Seemingly, Ugyen Ling monastery, the birthplace of the sixth Dalai Lama in Tawang district, was referred as Wo’gyainling, Choten Karpo Ri as Qoidengarbo Ri; Mechuka in West Siang district as Mainguka; Bumla, located near Tawang, as Biimo La; and Daporijo, in Upper Subansiri district, as Mila Ri. Chinese name Namkapub Ri probably came in reference to some hilly area near Namka Chu River.

Renaming these places revealed China’s insecurity over not acceptability of its false claim in India’s North-Eastern state but also over Tibet. The Dalai Lama’s recognition of Arunachal Pradesh as part of India in 2008 and his subsequent visits to the area in 2009 and 2017 fuelled China’s insecurities. China’s anxiety further rose after the US Congress passed (December 21,2020) the Tibetan Policy and support Act. China is apprehensive that clauses relating to Tibet, Taiwan, Hong Kong and Xinjiang in the US Tibet Policy and Support Act would go against China. It also felt uneasy over mention of the conflict between China and the ‘Dalai clique’ as an ethnic, religious and human rights issue.

Moreover, referring to it as an important achievement, that too on a timeline of five years, specifies the degree of China’s insecurity. However, announcing it as an achievement amid the Indo-China standoff on the borders indicates that China would continue to make efforts to destabilize India’s North-east with such dirty tricks.

The Chinese Ministry has also mentioned in its report that the move of renaming places was meant to strengthen the position of the Chinese government on its boundary disputes. Had it a dispute with one or two countries over border issues, one could think of trying to understand China’s point of view, but it has boundary disputes with its almost every neighbouring country; be it Russia, Mongolia, Afghanistan, Tajikistan, Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan, North Korea, South Korea, Bhutan, Nepal or India. More importantly, these disputes have been instigated by China, by unduly claiming over lands of the sovereign nations. Similarly, it has also self-instigated maritime disputes in every other country in the South China Sea including with Japan, Philippines, Vietnam, Taiwan, Malaysia, Indonesia, etc.

This is obvious that such baseless disputes are not going to fetch any land to expansionist China. However, it appears that creating disputes in its neighbourhood helps China to satisfy its insecurities arising out of the increasing public dissents on its domestic fronts on account of failing income, rising unemployment, the emergence of a new luxury-inspiring generation that is unwilling to do blue-collared jobs and other socio-economic issues. It never resorts to resolving the domestic discontents through reasons and rather uses brute force to suppress them. China now appears to have found its solace in creating disputes outsides its boundary rather than resolving those arising within its periphery .It is truly said , “One can give only what it has.” China has conflicts within its boundaries and this is why it keeps inflicting disputes everywhere.

The above Article can also be read using the link below:

China’s border disputes with neighbouring countries to divert public dissent on domestic fronts.

China deployed fleet of underwater drones in Indian Ocean, says report - Pragnya IAS Academy - News Analysis.

China deployed fleet of underwater drones in Indian Ocean, says report.

China has deployed a fleet of underwater drones called Sea Wing (Haiyi) glider in the Indian Ocean, which can operate for months on end and make observations for naval intelligence purposes

China has deployed a fleet of underwater drones called Sea Wing (Haiyi) glider in the Indian Ocean, which can operate for months on end and make observations for naval intelligence purposes, according to defence analyst HI Sutton.

Writing for the Forbes magazine, Sutton said that these sea gliders, which the Chinese are deploying "en masse", are a type of Uncrewed Underwater Vehicle (UUV) which were launched in mid-December 2019 and recovered in February after making over 3,400 observations.

Citing the government sources, Sutton in his report said that these gliders are similar to those deployed by the US Navy, one of which was seized by Beijing in 2016 to ensure "safe navigation of passing ships."

"Taken at face value, it may be surprising that China is now deploying these types of UUV en masse in the Indian Ocean. China has also deployed the Sea Wing from an ice breaker in the Arctic," Sutton wrote.

According to the defence expert, reports from December last year suggested that 14 would be employed in the Indian Ocean mission but only 12 were used. Sutton said that these gliders are unpowered with large wings to glide that can run for long periods of time, adding that they are not fast or agile, however, they are employed for long-range missions.

Furthermore, the defence analyst said these Chinese gliders that are placed in the Indian Ocean were reportedly gathering oceanography data, which "sounds innocuous" however, is commonly gathered for naval intelligence purposes."

Noting the rising challenges in the Indo-Pacific region, Chief of Defence Staff General Bipin Rawat earlier this month had said the world is witnessing a race for strategic bases in the Indian Ocean Region (IOR), adding that it is only going to gain momentum in the times to come.

"Of late along with geostrategic competition in the Indo-Pacific, we are also witnessing a race for strategic places and bases in the Indian Ocean region which is only going to gain momentum in the times to come," General Rawat had said while delivering a keynote address at the Global Dialogue Security Summit.

CDS Rawat had said, "In the military field, technology must be a means of deterrence not a source of destruction. Our approach to security hence needs to shift from unilateral to the multilateral mode which mandates increasing training engagements with partner nations in order to fortify the future."

He said that based on the challenges that India face, "we require structured long term planning for capacity building and capability development of our defence forces.

The above Article can also be read using the link below:

China deployed fleet of underwater drones in Indian Ocean, says report.

China’s 'super dam' a threat to India’s security - Pragnya IAS Academy - News Analysis.

China’s 'super dam' a threat to India’s security.

Yarlung Tsangpo is one of the most important rivers in south-western Tibet, supporting life along its fertile shore as the river runs through Kongpo (Nyingtri Prefecture) valleys in southern Tibet.

The river is fondly called Brahmaputra as it enters India and Bangladesh, where it supports millions of people for their daily livelihood. This mighty river faces a huge threat from a ‘super dam’.

According to a Global Times report on November 29, 2020, the Chinese government plans to construct a ‘super hydropower dam’ on the Yarlung Tsangpo in its 14th Five-Year Plan (2021-25). The report claimed that the hydropower dam would be “meaningful for the environment, national security, living standards and international cooperation.”

In reality, the ongoing excessive damming on the Yarlung Tsangpo is neither eco-friendly nor is it beneficial for the local community. It is part of a state-engineered, long-term preparation for a mass influx of Chinese migrants into the Kongpo region for permanent settlement. Such an eventuality could cause irreversible damage to the local ecology, diminish local Tibetan identity and greatly destabilise the hydrological balance across northeastern India.

Unlike in the 1960s, the large hydropower dams are no longer considered eco-friendly and sustainable. According to a BBC report (November 5, 2018), more than 90 per cent of the dams which have been built since the 1930s around the world were “more expensive than anticipated”, and that these dams have “damaged river ecology, displaced millions of people.”

The demolition of Yacla de Yeltes Dam (Nature, April 2018) in Spain was hailed by ecologists as a milestone for river-restoration efforts in Europe, and that the United States removed (American Rivers, February 6, 2020) 90 dams in 2019 alone for river restoration efforts.

But in Tibet, the Chinese government is on a dam-building spree along the 1,600-km stretch of Yarlung Tsangpo in Lhokha and Nyingtri. Nyingtri, traditionally known as Kongpo, is home to one of the world’s oldest forests and a safe habitat for primitive species. In fact, a group of Chinese scientists in 2015 discovered an extremely rare and primitive macaque monkey in the forest of Metok in Kongpo, a county where the ‘super dam’ is proposed to be built. One of the Chinese scientists even described Kongpo as “an ancient museum of nature”.

China has long planned 11 hydel dams on the river with Zangmu and Gyatsa already completed, Dagu and Jeixu under construction, Lengda recently receiving permission and more to begin soon as part of the 14th Five-Year Plan. Large dams inevitably inundate vast area of land around it for water storage, leading to massive loss of vegetation and wildlife habitat.

Dams also induce seismic activity, landslides, sudden change in the local ecosystem, and emit greenhouse gases into the atmosphere.

The dam construction is only one part of a state-engineered, infrastructure development plan in the Kongpo region of Southern Tibet to facilitate eventual mass migration from China to this scarcely populated region of Tibet. The region has seen rapid upgrading of the 5,476-km-long National Highway-318, which connects Chinese cities as far as Shanghai and Chengdu to Nyingtri city. The much-reported Chengdu-Nyingtri-Lhasa railway line (1,629 km), once completed, would be a direct passage for mass migration into the region.

The lack of trees and a harsh climate were the primary reasons for the Chinese migrants’ inability to permanently settle in some parts of the interior Tibet despite Beijing’s generous incentives. This makes Kongpo (Nyingytri Prefecture) in Tibet an ideal spot for mass migration as the region has pleasant mild weather with extensive forest and vegetation cover.

So for Tibetans in the region, the ongoing excessive infrastructure development is a colonial trap to marginalise the Tibetans in their own land.

Every infrastructure development along the Indo-Tibet border would bring a new degree of threat to India’s border security. But the construction of a ‘super dam’ in Metok means the threat expands all the way to Arunachal Pradesh and Assam. The close proximity of the location to India’s border means any sudden release of water from the dam could quickly and forcefully reach India with very little time for evacuation.

India would inevitably face a twin disaster in the future — water shortage in the winter as the ‘super dam’ could swallow much of the flow during dry season, and flash floods in the summer as excess water from the dam would be released during the monsoon season.

As highlighted by this author in 2018, infrastructure development in the region is a means to bring more Chinese migrants into the region for permanent settlement to counter the Indian border challenges. The objective is becoming clearer by the unusual importance the Chinese leadership has given to the region in recent years by making successive visits and fast-tracking infrastructure development works.

Dams are known to alter the natural characteristics of a river system and also disrupt the lives of millions of people living along the river basin. The ‘super dam’ planned on the Great-Bend of Yarlung Tsangpo (Brahmaputra) Grand Canyon in Metok, if it gets the go-ahead from Beijing, would have a catastrophic impact on the lives of millions in India and Bangladesh.

Therefore, the huge investment on a massive infrastructure development drive in the region is part of a state-engineered, long-term plan to facilitate mass migration of Chinese into the Kongpo (Nyingtri Prefecture) region, which shares a long border with India. Such a strategic plan is aimed at countering both domestic Tibetan resistance as well as border challenges from India. A Chinese-dominated population in the region could give the People’s Liberation Army stationed in the region much-needed popular support from the local community, which it obviously lacks.

The above Article can also be read using the link below:

China’s 'super dam' a threat to India’s security.

Why coronavirus could help save China's endangered species - Pragnya IAS Academy - News Analysis.

Why coronavirus could help save China's endangered species.

• The pangolin, the most trafficked mammal on Earth, is prized for its meat and its unique scales, which are said to have medicinal properties
• The international sale of pangolins was outlawed in 2016 under the CITES convention against species exploitation
The novel coronavirus outbreak in China may end up saving one of the world's most trafficked animals after Beijing announced a total ban on the sale and consumption of the pangolin.
The scaly mammal -- listed by the International Union for Conservation of Nature (ICUN) as threatened with extinction -- is a traditional delicacy across China and much of southeast Asia.
Following research linking the critters with the transmission of coronavirus to humans in the outbreak epicentre of Wuhan, Chinese officials on Monday slapped a ban on eating wild animals.
The measures, intended to halt the spread of the virus that has infected over 80,000 people worldwide and killed more than 2,700, could end up helping a number of endangered species -- but only if the ban holds long term.
"I applaud the ban, as we see that the Chinese government is determined to change a thousands-year-old tradition which is so inappropriate in today's society," said Jeff He, China director at the International Fund for Animal Welfare.
"I think the ban is an important Step One for wildlife conservation in China."
He called for "stronger and more progressive revisions" of China's existing wildlife protection laws.
Beijing implemented similar measures following the SARS outbreak in the early 2000s, but the trade and consumption of wild animals, including bats and snakes, made a comeback.
"I do think the government has seen the toll it takes on national economy and society is much bigger than the benefit that wild-eating business brings," said He.
Most-trafficked mammal
The pangolin, the most trafficked mammal on Earth, is prized for its meat and its unique scales, which are said to have medicinal properties.
Peter Knights, CEO of the WildAid charity, said that while China's ban was welcome, a global effort was required to end the drastic decline in the world's pangolin populations.
"The only question is what will happen in the longer run," he said. "We hope that China can lead the world in banning these markets globally."

The coronavirus outbreak should serve as a "warning" for humans to seek to conserve more of nature, or face health and financial backlashes, Knights said.
"If we heed the warning not only will we protect human life but we could actually save species like pangolins," he added.
The international sale of pangolins was outlawed in 2016 under the CITES convention against species exploitation.
CITES secretary-general Ivonne Higuero welcomed China's move to ban the domestic trade but stressed that the animals were far from out of the woods.
The illegal trafficking of wild species is estimated by the WWF to be worth around $15 billion annually, particularly among booming Asian markets.
"What we've seen is that there is a lot of illegal wildlife trade going on with China as a destination country," said Higuero.
She said a ban on pangolin consumption in China could significantly dent international trafficking by removing the financial incentives that drive criminal gangs to smuggle the creatures en masse.
While the ban has been welcomed by the conservation communities, there are fears that humans could come to blame pangolins for the outbreak, and seek revenge.
"People could become more wary of pangolins and therefore become more sensitive to their consumption and use," said Ray Jansen, Chairman of the African Pangolin Working Group and member of the ICUN.
"But on the other side of the sword, they could also start viewing pangolins as a threat, which would put them in danger. We are not quite sure how the public will take it."
For Andrew Muir, CEO of Wilderness Foundation Africa, the solution is simple.
"If we do not eat wildlife they will not harm us," he said. (Source: Livemint)


The above Article can also be read using the link below:

Why coronavirus could help save China's endangered species.

How Bougainville may be a new country in the Pacific and why that matters to China - Pragnya IAS Academy - News Analysis.

How Bougainville may be a new country in the Pacific and why that matters to China.

Bougainville has voted to become a new country, but the journey to independence is not yet over

The Autonomous Region of Bougainville, a chain of islands that lie 959 kilometres northwest of Papua New Guinea’s (PNG) capital, Port Moresby, has voted unequivocally for independence.
The referendum saw 85 per cent voter turnout during three weeks of voting, with 97.7 per cent of voters choosing independence from Papua New Guinea over the second option, which was remaining, but with greater autonomy from PNG. As the Bougainville Referendum Commission stated, the numbers told an important story, reflecting the support for independence across genders and age groups.
It’s a momentous event, not only because it could a new country, but also because the referendum marks an important part of a peace agreement signed almost 20 years ago.
The 2001 Bougainville Peace Agreement ended the deeply divisive nine year conflict (1988-1997) that lead to the deaths of approximately 20,000 people, or about 10 per cent of Bougainville’s population.
The referendum, however, is non-binding. The ultimate outcome will be determined by a vote in Papua New Guinea’s National Parliament following negotiations between the Papua New Guinean government and the Autonomous Bougainville Government.
But as former President James Tanis said to me hours after the result was announced: we survived the war, ended the war, delivered a successful referendum, what else can now stop us from becoming a successful independent nation?
China’s interest in Bougainville
For the broader region, an independent Bougainville has a number of implications. Firstly, it sends a strong signal for other self-determination movements across the Pacific, including in New Caledonia which will hold a second referendum for independence in 2020.
There are also geopolitical implications. The referendum has taken place during a period of heightened strategic anxiety among the Pacific’s so-called traditional partners — Australia, New Zealand and the United States, as well as the United Kingdom, France and Japan.

There have long been concerns China will seek to curry influence with an independent Bougainville. As one Bougainvillean leader informed me, Chinese efforts to build relationships with Bougainville’s political elite have increased over the past few years.
Beijing’s interest in Bougainville is two-fold: First, it is seeking to shore up diplomatic support in the Pacific Islands region, thereby reducing support for Taiwan which lost a further two Pacific allies this year. And second, to access to resources, namely fisheries and extractive minerals.
Although it will be tempting for many in Canberra, Washington and Wellington to view an independent Bougainville through the current strategic prism — adhering to narratives about debt-trap diplomacy — doing so undermines the importance of local dynamics and the resilience of Bougainville people.
An independent Bougainville navigating a more disordered and disruptive international environment will need nuanced grounded advice, rather than speculation. The road ahead for Bougainville will be challenging and it will need its friends — particularly New Zealand and Australia.
The much vaunted respective “Pacific Reset” and “Pacific Step Up” policies provide entry points for the kind of genuine engagement and support that Bougainville will require in the coming years.
Celebration with cautious anticipation
Following the result’s announcement, Papua New Guinea’s Prime Minister James Marape said his government had heard the voice of Bougainvilleans, and the two governments must now develop a road map that leads to lasting political settlement.
And Bougainville Referendum Commission chairman Bertie Ahern urged all sides to recognise the result and said the vote was about “your peace, your history, and your future” and reflected “the power of the pen over weapons”. Acknowledging the result is non-binding, Ahern said:
the referendum is one part of that ongoing journey.
And here lies the challenge. The post-referendum period was always going to be one of celebration, cautious anticipation and the management of expectations.
As one of Bougainville’s formidable women leaders told me, there are concerns about security in the post-referendum period as expectation turns to frustration if there are perceived delays in determining Bougainville’s future political status.
What’s more, the negotiations are likely to take a long time, since there’s no deadline they’re required to meet.
There are, however, critical milestones that still need to be hit first. This includes the Autonomous Bougainville Government elections, the first elections following the referendum, so will likely see intensified politicking as politicians jockey for a potential role in building an independent Bougainvillean state.
The Papua New Guinea’s national elections are also scheduled for 2022. The risk in both cases is that Bougainville’s future becomes a political pawn.
An independent Bougainville will face significant challenges and diverse choices.
Not least of which is Bougainville’s economic security and the choices that will need to be made about the Panguna Mine, the gold and copper mine at the heart of much of the conflict, and fisheries, once the new nation’s 200-mile Exclusive Economic Zone is created.
A young nation built on a past mired by the extremes of resource nationalism, Bougainville has difficult decisions to make about how it secures its economic self-reliance. (Source:dwontoearth)


The above Article can also be read using the link below:

How Bougainville may be a new country in the Pacific and why that matters to China.

China Named Worst Abuser of Internet Freedom in Freedom House Report - Pragnya IAS Academy - News Analysis.

China Named Worst Abuser of Internet Freedom in Freedom House Report.

China has been the world’s worst abuser of internet freedom for the fourth consecutive year, while Vietnam, Myanmar and Cambodia were not far behind, according to a Freedom House report published Tuesday.

In Freedom on the Net 2019: The Crisis of Social Media, the Washington-based independent watchdog organization evaluated 65 countries between June 2018 and May 2019, and found that 33 were on an “overall decline” in terms of internet freedom.

The study evaluated the 65 countries in terms of “obstacles to access,” “limits on content,” and “violations of user rights,” assigning each country a score between zero (least free) and 100 (most free).
Iceland was ranked first with a score of 95, with China coming in last with a score of 10. Vietnam (61st, with a score of 24) and Myanmar (47th with a score of 36) were classified as “not free” in the report. Cambodia (42nd, with a score of 43) was classified among countries that were “partly free.”
China
According to the report, “Censorship reached unprecedented extremes as the government enhanced its information controls in advance of the 30th anniversary of the Tiananmen Square massacre and in the face of widespread antigovernment protests in Hong Kong.”
It cited examples of government administrators closing down individual accounts on WeChat for allegedly “deviant” behavior such as “commenting on environmental disasters.”
The threat of account lockdown caused users to censor themselves or lose access to the platform, which has become necessary in everyday life in China, giving users access to services like transportation and banking.
The report emphasized that the policy “narrowed avenues for digital mobilization,” and “silenced online activism.”
China was also found to have increased its efforts to use online platforms to influence foreign political outcomes, including cyberattacks and information warfare linked to interference in the 2019 federal elections in Australia.
The report also cited China’s recruitment of operatives to monitor internet usage while reporting “problematic content and accounts” to the government as a violation of human rights.
In addition, the report brought up the issue of China’s role as a leader in the creation, use and transfer of social media surveillance tools. For example, Semptian, the Chinese developer of the Aegis surveillance system, boasts that it is currently monitoring 200 million people in China, which is one-fourth of all Chinese internet users.
Among Semptian’s products are a national firewall solution which is said to be as effective as China’s own “Great Firewall,” through with the government controls internet content in China.
The report also pointed out that companies that make and use these systems do so while working in close cooperation with the country’s intelligence agencies.
It points to one case of a researcher discovering a database used by law enforcement that contained social media profiles, messages and shared files of about 364 million users.
China also has access to user content and metadata, which it can use to identify and punish those who share content it doesn’t like.
The report cited a case from March 2019 when a member of the Uyghur Muslim minority from the Xinjiang Uyghur Autonomous Region (XUAR) was detained for three days because someone in his WeChat contacts list had “checked in” from Saudi Arabia.
Vietnam, Myanmar and Cambodia
While Vietnam, Myanmar and Cambodia were not mentioned in depth in the report itself, Freedom House’s website provided in-depth reports for each country in the study.
While Cambodia’s internet freedom score of 43 placed it in the “partly free” designation, it barely cleared 39-point-or-lower threshold of “not free.” Of 16 Asia-Pacific countries included in the study, Cambodia ranked 11th.
“In the run-up to the 2018 elections, independent news sites were blocked, and online activists were subjected to harassment and intimidation,” said Freedom House.
“Internet users continued to face pressure to remove content and reports of self-censorship online remained prevalent,” the NGO added.
The government also cracked down on dissent, using the law to detain or charge activists who had expressed political viewpoints online.
Behind Cambodia was Myanmar, ranked 12th in Asia, just below the partly free threshold.
“The military and ruling party continued manipulating online content, while users were hesitant to discuss sensitive topics such as gender, the mostly Muslim Rohingya ethnic group, or conflicts in Rakhine, Shan, and Kachin states,” the entry on Myanmar said.
“Worryingly, some individuals who criticized the government online faced prosecutions and even prison time under a range of laws, including the repressive Telecommunications Law,” it added.
During the coverage period of Freedom House’s study, Myanmar’s government did not restrict connectivity in the country, but the NGO pointed out that in June 2019, the government turned off the internet in parts of Rakhine and Chin States, affection more than a million users. As of October 2019 the restrictions were still in place, leaving 600,000 without access.
Vietnam, 15th in Asia, still had restrictions on internet freedom and the online spaces for activism and dissent became more limited.
“Despite widespread protests, the enactment of a draconian cybersecurity law led to more restrictions on the internet by giving the government greater surveillance and censorship powers,” said Freedom House.
Additionally, the group cited long sentences for expressing opinions online, suspensions of online media, and an enforced disappearance. There was also a “record number” of content erasures in Vietnam over the reporting period.
The trend observed by the study was that internet freedom is declining in all regions of the world. Only four countries—Iceland, Estonia, Canada, and Germany—scored 80 or above, with the United States garnering a score of 77.


The above Article can also be read using the link below:

China Named Worst Abuser of Internet Freedom in Freedom House Report.

India, China sign four MoUs, agree to organise 100 activities - Pragnya IAS Academy - News Analysis.

India, China sign four MoUs, agree to organise 100 activities.

India and China on Monday signed four Memorandums of Understanding (MoUs) and agreed to organise 100 activities in the coming months in the domain of film and broadcasting in bid to further strengthen the cultural and people-to-people ties between the two countries.

The four agreements were signed following the second meeting of the India-China High-Level Mechanism (HLM) on Cultural and People-to-People Exchanges, chaired by External Affairs Minister S Jaishankar and his Chinese counterpart Wang Yi.
The two countries agreed to promote cultural exchanges for the preservation of intangible cultural heritage, organization of cultural activities and management of archaeological heritage sites.
They also agreed to enhance cooperation in the field of traditional medicine, where both India and China have a rich knowledge accumulated over centuries, with the objective of promoting the development of these medicines in the healthcare system of the two countries.
"Third, we agreed to promote exchanges between our National Sports Associations, sportspersons and youth for strengthening cooperation on international sports events," Jaishankar said at a joint press conference with Wang held here.
"Lastly, we agreed on the cooperation in Museum Management for promoting collaboration between Hubei Provincial Museum, Wuhan and the National Museum, New Delhi in the field of exhibitions, protection and restoration of collections and archaeological excavations for Museums," the foreign minister said.


The above Article can also be read using the link below:

India, China sign four MoUs, agree to organise 100 activities.

India to cross China's population by 2027: United Nations - Pragnya IAS Academy - News Analysis.

India to cross China's population by 2027: United Nations.

UN report says India is expected to add nearly 273 million people between 2019 and 2050. Previous UN projections had estimated that India will surpass China as the world's most populous country as early as 2022.

India is projected to surpass China as the world's most populous country in the next eight years. As per a United Nations report, released on Monday, India is expected to add nearly 273 million people between 2019 and 2050 and remain the most populated country through the end of the current century.

"India is expected to add nearly 273 million people between 2019 and 2050, while the population of Nigeria is projected to grow by 200 million. Together, these two countries could account for 23 per cent of the global population increase to 2050," the report has said.
Previous UN projections had estimated that India will surpass China as the world's most populous country as early as 2022.
The 2017 world population report, released by the UN two years ago, had estimated that the population of India will surpass that of China's by around 2024.
China, with 1.43 billion people in 2019, and India, with 1.37 billion, have long been the two most populous countries of the world, comprising 19 and 18 per cent, respectively, of the global total in 2019. They are followed by the United States of America.
WORLD POPULATION TO INCREASE BY 2 BILLION IN 30 YEARS
The UN report 'The World Population Prospects 2019' added that the world's population is expected to increase by two billion people in the next 30 years -- from 7.7 billion currently to 9.7 billion in 2050.
The report said more than half of the projected increase in the global population up to 2050 will be concentrated in just nine countries, led by India and followed by Nigeria, Pakistan, Democratic Republic of the Congo, Ethiopia, Tanzania, Indonesia, Egypt and the US.
POPULATION GROWING OLDER
The report also confirmed that the world's population is growing older due to increasing life expectancy and falling fertility levels, and that the number of countries experiencing a reduction in population size is growing.
By 2050, one in six people in the world will be over age 65 (16 per cent), up from one in 11 in 2019 (9 per cent). The number of persons aged 80 years or over is projected to triple, from 143 million in 2019 to 426 million in 2050.
UN Under-Secretary-General for Economic and Social Affairs Liu Zhenmin said the report offers a roadmap indicating where to target action and interventions.
"Many of the fastest growing populations are in the poorest countries, where population growth brings additional challenges in the effort to eradicate poverty, achieve greater equality, combat hunger and malnutrition and strengthen the coverage and quality of health and education systems to ensure that no one is left behind."
A growing number of countries are experiencing a reduction in population size. Since 2010, 27 countries or areas have experienced a reduction of one per cent or more in the size of their populations, caused by sustained low levels of fertility.
In China, the population is projected to decrease by 31.4 million, or around 2.2 per cent, between 2019 and 2050. (Source: The Indian Express)


The above Article can also be read using the link below:

India to cross China's population by 2027: United Nations.

India, Singapore Begin SIMBEX 2019 Naval Exercises in South China Sea - Pragnya IAS Academy - News Analysis.

India, Singapore Begin SIMBEX 2019 Naval Exercises in South China Sea.

The latest iteration of the SIMBEX exercise is taking place in the South China Sea.

The Indian Navy and the Republic of Singapore Navy began a major bilateral naval exercise on Sunday in the South China Sea. The exercise, code-named SIMBEX 19, will run through May 22. Last year’s exercises took place in the Indian Ocean, off India’s Andaman and Nicobar Islands.

On the Indian side, two vessels that have been on a two-month-long deployment to East Asia are participating. INS Kolkata, the lead ship of the Kolkata-class guided missile destroyers, and INS Shakti, a Deepak-class fleet tanker, participated in the exercise.
Singapore, meanwhile, was represented by RSN Steadfast, a Formidable-class frigate, and RSN Valiant, a Victory-class corvette. Fokker-50 maritime patrol aircraft and Republic of Singapore Air Force F-16 fighters also participated.
This year’s exercise will include a live-fire sea phase exercise, which will encompass a range of maritime combat drills, including “firing on aerial/surface targets, advanced aerial tracking, coordinated targeting exercises and tactical exercises on surface/air scenarios,” according to a statement released by the Indian Navy.
Last year’s exercises also included a live-fire component and additionally featured anti-submarine warfare drills.
According to the Indian Navy, prior to SIMBEX 19, INS Kolkata and INS Shakti were in Singapore for the biennial maritime defense trade show IMDEX 19. “On successful completion of IMDEX 19, IN ships Kolkata and Shakti are continuing their stay at Singapore to participate in the annual Singapore India Maritime Bilateral Exercise SIMBEX-2019,” the Indian Navy noted in a statement.
In recent years, India has increased its naval activities in the South China Sea. This month, for the first time ever, India joined the navies of the United States, Japan, and the Philippines for quadrilateral presence exercises, including “formation exercises, communication drills, [and] passenger transfers,” according to a U.S. Navy 7th fleet statement.
The quadrilateral activities followed the first phase of the Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN) Defense Ministers Meeting (ADMM)-Plus Maritime Security Field Training Exercise (MS FTX) in the South China Sea.
INS Kolkata and INS Shakti, last month, participated in a major bilateral exercise with the Vietnam Navy. The two vessels also attended the Chinese People’s Liberation Army Navy’s 70th anniversary fleet review in Qingdao, China, and also visited Busan, South Korea, where the opening ceremony of the ADMM-Plus FS MTX took place.
Singapore and India have developed defense ties. In April 2019, the two countries held their annual joint army exercise, Bold Kurukshetra 2019. The two countries have expanded their defense cooperation since the signing of their Defense Cooperation Agreement in 2003.


The above Article can also be read using the link below:

India, Singapore Begin SIMBEX 2019 Naval Exercises in South China Sea.

China removes BRI map that showed Arunachal & J&K part of India - Pragnya IAS Academy - News Analysis.

China removes BRI map that showed Arunachal & J&K part of India.

China on Saturday removed map from website of Belt and Road Initiative (BR) Forum which had shown entire Jammu & Kashmir and Arunachal Pradesh as part of India and India as part of BRI.
As the second edition of Belt and Road Initiative Summit got underway in Beijing this Thursday, ET had reported on Friday that China displayed a map with BRI routes that curiously showed entire Jammu & Kashmir and Arunachal Pradesh as part of India.
The map also surprisingly portrayed India as part of BRI even when India boycotted the summit for the second time. The map was displayed by China’s ministry of commerce on the occasion of three-day BRI Summit. At the Summit the Chinese President made attempts to address concerns expressed by India over BRI.
Inclusion of entire J&K and Arunachal Pradesh as part of India is not only a surprise but also self-contradictory, given the fact that China recently destroyed thousands of maps which showed Arunachal as part of India. China regularly protests visits by top Indian leadership to Arunachal Pradesh, described as “Southern Tibet” in Chinese government parlance.
Previous maps of J&K issued by China showed part of the state under Pakistan, what is Pak Occupied Kashmir. Sources here indicated that such faux pas, if at all, is a rare occurrence in China’s official publications and websites. Experts on Sino-Indian affairs are trying to ascertain if it is a deliberate tactical move by China to placate India.
Last November, China's state-run media (CGTN television) excluded Pak occupied Kashmir (PoK) from the map of Pakistan. A map of Pakistan excluding PoK was displayed by China's state-run television while reporting terror attack on Chinese consulate in Karachi.
Excluding PoK from the Pakistan map can also have implications for China-Pakistan-Economic-Corridor (CPEC). India has strong reservations on CPEC as it is passing through PoK that violates India’s sovereignty. CPEC is the most important connectivity link under China's Belt and Road Initiative (BRI).
China has invested heavily in infrastructure projects in PoK even before BRI was launched, much to India's discomfiture. India had served several protest letters, both in Beijing as well as Islamabad, about Chinese funded projects in PoK. China had reportedly posted troops in PoK, a move that was sharply criticised by India.
Besides Chinese investments in PoK, Sino-Indian ties was adversely impacted by China offering stapled visas to residents to Jammu and Kashmir a few years back and hosting Hurriyat leaders. Beijing has been emphasising of late that India and Pakistan should address the Kashmir issue bilaterally.(Source: defencenews.in)


The above Article can also be read using the link below:

China removes BRI map that showed Arunachal & J&K part of India.

What is the Belt and Road Initiative, and why is China pushing it hard? - Pragnya IAS Academy - News Analysis.

What is the Belt and Road Initiative, and why is China pushing it hard?.

Fissures surface in China’s ambitious Belt and Road Initiative, but Beijing pushes hard on the project to leverage its influence worldwide.

Six years ago, Chinese President Xi Jinping launched a mammoth infrastructure project straddling many countries and continents. Of the projects, the most ambitious is the $60+ billion China-Pakistan Economic Corridor, aimed at linking China’s Xinjiang province with the Arabian Sea.
What is it?
The Belt and Road Initiative (BRI), also known as the One Belt One Road Initiative, is the most emblematic of China’s economic and industrial might, as of its ambitions for global, political and strategic influence. The appellation has come to signify the many Beijing-backed infrastructure projects that predate Mr. Xi’s ascent.
When Mr. Xi announced the BRI’s formal launch in Kazakhstan in 2013, there were few signs that the policy would command the heft and reach it has acquired since. BRI partnerships encompass infrastructure investments in the construction, transport, aviation, telecommunications and energy sectors stretching across many countries in Asia and Africa. A number of Latin American and Caribbean states recently signed a memorandum of understanding to join the BRI. The so-called 16+1 (China) grouping of central and eastern European countries includes 11 states from the European Union (EU). Rome endorsed the BRI last week, the first among the Group of 7 most industrialised nations to do so. The move has caused consternation in Brussels and Washington, which are grappling with the many fissures that have surfaced in the trans-Atlantic alliance.
Typically, the terms around BRI bilateral tie-ups are fluid and amorphous in nature, premised on negotiation and accommodation rather than being underpinned by rigidly written-down rules and procedures. The upside to this style of doing things is the flow of investment on seemingly soft terms to places hard up for basic infrastructure. The politically neutral stance of Beijing-backed deals starkly contrasts with much western hypocrisy and high-mindedness about respect for the rule of law and human rights. The downside is the risk of falling into a prolonged debt trap and the uncertainty over contractual obligations between the parties. With the rise of populist forces in many countries in recent years, the world’s open trading system has come under a protectionist strain. Perhaps, there are signs in the BRI of the beginnings of a different kind of globalisation.
Why did China push for it?
The BRI is, above all, a response to slowing domestic economic growth earlier this decade, accentuated by a slump in Chinese exports to developed countries following the 2007-08 economic meltdown. As infrastructure spending at home became less sustainable, Beijing shifted the emphasis in a big way to boosting the global competitiveness of domestic businesses. During the BRI’s fifth anniversary in September, Mr. Xi described this flagship programme as an economic cooperation initiative rather than a geopolitical or military alliance. But the more common narrative is that the large infrastructure investments in the least developed and developing countries have enabled Beijing to leverage its influence around the world, potentially altering the established rules of the global order.
How many major BRI projects are in the works?
It is hard to put a precise number on them because projects are negotiated informally between investor and recipient countries. But they are clearly in the thousands, unprecedented in the history of development cooperation, in terms of the volume of investment and potential benefits. Let us begin with the Greek harbour of Piraeus. Backed by Chinese investment, the port has climbed from the world’s 93rd container port in 2010 to 38th in 2017. This stupendous success has apparently raised expectations even higher. A most strategic BRI venture is the East Coast Rail Link (ECRL), which would connect Malaysia’s less developed east coast to southern Thailand and the capital Kuala Lumpur. The newly elected government of Prime Minister Mahathir Mohamad suspended the project last year, owing to reservations about the cost of financing by the China Communication Construction Company. Following Beijing’s willingness to address Kuala Lumpur’s concerns, the ECRL has been brought back on track with revisions to its pricing and size. There are other large Malaysian gas and oil pipeline projects that were suspended owing to the alleged misappropriation of funds during the previous government. They might eventually be revived, just as the rail project.
By far the most ambitious BRI project is the $60+ billion China-Pakistan Economic Corridor. Once the Gwadar city port in coastal Balochistan is built, its strategic location, near the Strait of Hormuz, will connect the Arabian Sea and the Gulf of Oman, the arterial route to world oil transport. The force of Balochi opposition to the China-Pakistan Economic Corridor, as to most other projects, essentially comes down to a demand to reallocate its promised benefits rather than an outright roll-back. India has opted to stay out of the BRI owing to concerns of national sovereignty and integrity, choosing instead to stick with the Shanghai Cooperation Organisation. New Delhi’s reservations are entirely understandable, given that the China-Pakistan Economic Corridor, a core BRI endeavour, passes through the Pakistan-occupied Kashmir.
Where does the BRI go from here?
Many BRI projects are said to have overshot their original estimated cost. The burgeoning debt burden recipient countries have thus accumulated has led to questions over the long-term viability and benefits of such ventures. While these may be legitimate concerns, it is equally true that it is still early days in the evolution of the BRI. Another concern for the BRI is its current dependence on the U.S. dollar to fund the bulk of its projects. But unlike some years ago, its stocks of the greenback are in limited supply. Conversely, the renminbi is yet to emerge as a full-fledged global currency. That may leave China with the option of adopting a co-financing strategy. Such cooperation with multilateral banking institutions would be a welcome balancing act. Western critics have attacked the initiative as new colonialism, or Marshal Plan for the 21st century. China has generally played down such comparisons, drawing parallels with the U.S. endeavour to rebuild Europe as a counter to the Soviet Union after World War II. Beijing has embarked upon a ‘Made in China 2025’ industrial policy, an audacious bid for global dominance in artificial intelligence, aerospace, and 5G telecommunication, among others. Washington’s current trade dispute with China aims fundamentally to challenge this growing dominance. It has even portrayed Chinese competition in terms of an ultimate threat to U.S. national security, invoking provisions rarely used in international trade disputes. The outcome of negotiations between the world’s two largest economies to break the deadlock would echo across the Belt and Road process. Italy’s endorsement of the BRI is a potential game changer. Other major economies may follow Rome’s lead, in much the same way as the initial resistance to China’s Asian Infrastructure Investment Bank eventually evaporated. That opens room to indulge in some idle speculation about how closely or little the new Silk Road would one day resemble the current order of things. The answer would depend upon who among its innumerable participants can wield the maximum influence and ultimately emerge winners or losers. One day, the BRI might remain Chinese in all but name. That may be the next phase of globalisation in the making. (Source: The Hindu)


The above Article can also be read using the link below:

What is the Belt and Road Initiative, and why is China pushing it hard?.

World is getting greener, India and China leading efforts: NASA study - Pragnya IAS Academy - News Analysis.

World is getting greener, India and China leading efforts: NASA study.

China alone accounts for 25 per cent of the global net increase in leaf area with only 6.6 per cent of global vegetated area.

India and China are leading the global greening effort, which is quite contrary to the general perception worldwide, a latest NASA study said Monday, observing that the world is a greener place than it was 20 years ago.

The NASA study based on data received and analysed from its satellite said that India and China are leading in greening on land. "China and India account for one-third of the greening but contain only 9 per cent of the planet's land area covered in vegetation," said lead author Chi Chen of Boston University.

"That is a surprising finding, considering the general notion of land degradation in populous countries from over exploitation," he said.

The study published on February 11, in the journal Nature Sustainability said that recent satellite data reveal a greening pattern that is strikingly prominent in China and India and overlaps with croplands world-wide.

China alone accounts for 25 per cent of the global net increase in leaf area with only 6.6 per cent of global vegetated area.

The greening in China is from forests (42 per cent) and croplands (32 per cent), but in India it is mostly from croplands (82 percent) with minor contribution from forests (4.4 per cent), the NASA study said.

China is engineering ambitious programmes to conserve and expand forests with the goal of mitigating land degradation, air pollution and climate change.

Food production in China and India has increased by over 35 per cent since 2000 mostly owing to an increase in harvested area through multiple cropping facilitated by fertiliser use and surface- and/or groundwater irrigation.

When the greening of the Earth was first observed, we thought it was due to a warmer, wetter climate and fertilization from the added carbon dioxide in the atmosphere, said Rama Nemani, a research scientist at NASA's Ames Research Center and a co-author of the study.

This study was made possible thanks to a two-decade-long data record from the Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) instruments on NASA's Terra and Aqua satellites. Now with the MODIS data, we see that humans are also contributing, she said.

Observing that once people realise there is a problem, they tend to fix it, Nemani said in the 1970s and 80s in India and China, the situation around vegetation loss was not good.

In the 1990s, people realized it, and today things have improved. Humans are incredibly resilient. That's what we see in the satellite data, she said.

According to the paper, how the greening trend may change in the future depends on numerous factors.

For example, increased food production in India is facilitated by groundwater irrigation. If the groundwater is depleted, this trend may change, it said.

The researchers also pointed out that the gain in greenness around the world does not necessarily offset the loss of natural vegetation in tropical regions such as Brazil and Indonesia. There are consequences for sustainability and biodiversity in those ecosystems beyond the simple greenness of the landscape, the research study said. (Source: The Business Standard)

The above Article can also be read using the link below:

World is getting greener, India and China leading efforts: NASA study.

India among countries to benefit from US-China trade war: UN - Pragnya IAS Academy - News Analysis.

India among countries to benefit from US-China trade war: UN.

• The US and China are locked in a trade war since President Donald Trump imposed heavy tariffs on imported steel and aluminium items in March last year
• The study also underlines the "common concern" that trade disputes have an unavoidable impact on the "still fragile" global economy
India is among a handful of countries that stand to benefit from the ongoing trade tensions between the world's top two economies - the US and China, the UN has said in its latest report.

The US and China are locked in a trade war since President Donald Trump imposed heavy tariffs on imported steel and aluminium items in March last year, a move that sparked fears of a global trade war.
In response, China imposed tit-for-tat tariffs on billions of dollars worth of American imports.
The United Nations experts said Monday that the tit-for-tat trade dispute between China and the United States may do little to protect domestic producers in either country and could have "massive" implications on the global economy unless it is resolved.
Of the USD 250 billion in Chinese exports that are subject to US tariffs, only about six per cent will be picked up by firms in the US, according to a report by the UN Conference on Trade and Development (UNCTAD).
And of the approximately USD 85 billion in US exports that are subject to China's tariffs, only about five per cent of this will be taken up by Chinese firms, according to the UN research.
In a bid to meet the US' demand of bringing down the USD 375 billion bilateral trade deficit, China has pledged to take measures to step-up American imports and investments. March 1, 2019 is the deadline for implementing the measures.
Unless the US and China agree to drop their tariff dispute by March 1, duty on each country's products will rise to 25 per cent, up from the current 10 per cent level, the UN said.
Countries that are expected to benefit the most from the trade war are the EU members as exports in the bloc are likely to grow by USD 70 billion. Japan and Canada will see exports increase by more than USD 20 billion each, it said.
Other countries set to benefit from the trade tensions include Australia, with 4.6 per cent export gains, Brazil (3.8) India (3.5), Philippines (3.2) and Vietnam (5), the study said.
Quoting former US Secretary of State Cordell Hull, UNCTAD's Pamela Coke-Hamilton repeated his description of protective tariffs as "a gun that recoils on ourselves", which had also contributed to the Great Depression of the 1930s and the rise of extremism.
"I think that is a single lesson from what we have had here today. If - barring an agreement between the US, China on March 1 - tariffs will escalate to 25 per cent, which is a significant difference from the 10 per cent as it currently exists," Coke-Hamilton said.
The implications of such a development would be "massive", the UNCTAD Director, Division on International Trade in Goods and Services, and Commodities, continued, adding that its effects would first of all involve "an economic downturn... due to instability in commodities and financial markets".
The UNCTAD study also warns that the spat could hit East Asian producers the hardest, with a projected USD 160 billion contraction in the region's exports unless discussions between China and the US are resolved before the March 1 deadline.
The study also underlines the "common concern" that trade disputes have an unavoidable impact on the "still fragile" global economy, particularly on developing, commodity-rich countries that are dependent on exports.
"One major concern is the risk that trade tensions could spiral into currency wars, making dollar-denominated debt more difficult to service," the report added.
Imposing tariffs make US-made products cheaper than imported ones, and encourage consumers to buy American. (Source:Livemint)


The above Article can also be read using the link below:

India among countries to benefit from US-China trade war: UN.

India set to surpass China to become second-largest oil demand centre in 2019 - Pragnya IA Academy - News Analysis.

India set to surpass China to become second-largest oil demand centre in 2019.

Highlights:
• India's oil demand growth recovered strongly in 2018 overcoming the effects of GST and demonetisation
• India contributed 14% of the global demand growth, or 2,45,000 barrels per day last year
India will surpass China to become the second-largest oil demand growth centre globally in 2019 on the back of buoyant auto fuel and LPG consumption, research and consultancy group Wood Mackenzie said on Tuesday.

In a report, Wood Mackenzie said India's oil demand growth recovered strongly in 2018, overcoming the aftermath of the implementation of the Goods and Services Tax (GST) and demonetisation, and contributed 14% of the global demand growth, or 2,45,000 barrels per day.
"We forecast oil demand to grow at the same level in 2019. This will result in India becoming the second largest demand growth centre globally in 2019, behind the US, but ahead of China. Transport fuels — gasoline and diesel — and residential LPG will continue to be the two main drivers of oil demand growth," the report said.
According to the US Energy Information Administration (EIA), India is currently ranked behind the US and China as the world's third-largest oil consumer. It consumed 206.2 million tonnes (over 4 million bpd) in 2017-18.
During April-December, consumption of petroleum products stood at 157.4 million tonnes, up 2.5% over the year-ago period.
Last August, the Organisation of Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) projected India's oil demand to rise by 5.8 million barrels per day (bpd) by 2040, accounting for about 40% of the overall increase in global demand during the period.
Mackenzie said diesel, the most consumed fuel in the country, is projected to grow by 6.4%, or 1,12,000 bpd year-on-year in 2019, compared with 93,000 bpd in 2018.
This was because of "buoyant commercial vehicle sales facilitated by sustained infrastructure growth, and increasing demand from the construction, logistics, e-commerce and consumer goods sectors," it said.
Also, the push will come from a demand-based approach instead of a tax-based approach in the logistics sector, following the implementation of the GST, which led to the removal of inter-state taxes. "This is a structural shift, resulting in increased demand for heavy and medium-duty trucks to achieve economies of scale and operational efficiency."
More importantly, general elections in May will lead to increased travel activity for campaigning and implementation of infrastructure projects, which will bolster demand in the first half of 2019, Mackenzie said.
"Key risks ensue as crude price volatility is expected to persist. Historically, short-term gasoline demand has been relatively inelastic to retail prices in developing economies such as India. Even though higher retail prices affect consumer sentiment for new vehicle purchases, we believe this trend will continue with income effects driving the demand, subduing the price effects."
LPG demand growth will remain robust in 2019 at 5% (40,000 bpd), lower than the 56,000 bpd growth achieved in 2018. "The number of new household LPG customers continued to surge, driven by the Ujjwala scheme to promote clean cooking fuel in rural areas. That said, there is a largely untapped market, as around 50 million households remain deprived of LPG."
On the use of electric vehicles, it said only 2,60,000 EVs had hit Indian roads, the majority being two-wheelers.
"Electric car sales, for instance, declined by 40% to a mere 1,200 units in 2017-18 over 2016-17, while electric two-wheeler sales rose 138% to 54,800 units during the same period. In contrast, China had a stock of 1.8 million EVs and 258 million e-bikes at the end of 2018," it said.
This year, Mackenzie said, will be an important year since the final version of the National Auto Policy and the second phase of the FAME scheme will be released.
"The question is the timing — will it be before or after the elections? Will the Modi government change tack if it is not re-elected? Will this ambiguity continue to deter wider adoption? Automakers seem to have realised that EV adoption is not a question of 'if'. Maruti Suzuki, for instance, will launch an electric version of one of its best-selling entry-segment cars — the Wagon R — in Q1 2019."
Another key challenge will be stakeholder management and coordination across different ministries, government bodies and industry participants, while the policy is formalised.
Stating that two-wheelers will dominate the electric mobility landscape in the personal transport sector, it said India offered huge potential for automakers since car ownership levels were very low (23 per 1,000 capita).
Rising income levels will increase car ownership and most global automakers are closely eyeing the Indian market. At the same time, two-wheelers should not be ignored — with current ownership six times larger than four-wheelers.
"We believe that two-wheelers are the more effective option, given their utility in intra-city travel, less need for public charging infrastructure and availability of battery technology. Two-wheelers will eventually leapfrog four-wheelers towards the goal of a greener and sustainable mobility future."(Source:Livemint)


The above Article can also be read using the link below:

India set to surpass China to become second-largest oil demand centre in 2019.

Satellite images show China is building underground facility 50 km from India border - Pragnya IAS Academy - News Analysis.

Satellite images show China is building underground facility 50 km from India border.

The People’s Liberation Army has constructed an underground facility (UGF) barely 50 km from the India-China border, and just 60 km from the Indian forward posts at Demchok in Ladakh.

So far, there was just one UGF in Tibet, with another one which could possibly target India being a fair way away in the Xinjiang Uyghur Autonomous Region. But now, thanks to satellite imagery, ThePrint has identified a deeply buried hardened target (DBHT) under construction near the town of Ngari, also known as Shiquanhe in Mandarin, which could of worry to India.
Construction of this UGF began in December 2016, about six months before the Doklam standoff near the India-China-Bhutan tri-junction in the east. The slow speed of construction indicates that special personnel are being used instead of locals, clearly in order to maintain secrecy and security of the facility.
Overview of the UGF ::
The UGF is served by four large tunnel entrances and three small ones. Most of them have barracks at the entrance for security personnel.
The facilities are in two separate groups, not very far from each other, and connected with proper roads. They have hardened entrances constructed with reinforced cement concrete. It is assessed that all entrances would soon be covered with other material to withstand even a direct hit.
Excavated earth has been piled nearby to avoid detection, but a temporal comparison indicates clear mensuration.
The amount of earth excavated indicates that approximately 3.5 lakh cubic metres of space has been created inside the UGF.
Construction material ::
The construction material for this facility is dumped at two places very close to the entrances. These dumps also have two cement plants sufficient for construction activity inside the tunnels.
The material dump has some iron rebars, indicating that the construction work is reinforced concrete.
The vehicle park and barrack type of accommodation for workers and staff is located very close to one of the dumps.
Garrisons ::
The tunnelled facility has a support garrison constructed in 2016 and 2017. Construction of another support garrison has probably just begun.
Both the garrisons are very close to the main road. The roads are wide enough to let large transporters with big turning radii move smoothly.
Although it is difficult to indicate the exact purpose of this facility with such low temporal resolution, it can safely be assumed that it may be used for storage of missiles and/or ammunition on wheels.


The above Article can also be read using the link below:

Satellite images show China is building underground facility 50 km from India border.

Chang’e-4 and Chandrayaan-2 — China & India missions have similar objectives, landing site - Pragnya IAS Academy - News Analysis.

Chang’e-4 and Chandrayaan-2 — China & India missions have similar objectives, landing site.

China made history Thursday by becoming the first country to land a spacecraft on the far side of the moon, a feat India is expected to repeat soon with Chandrayaan-2.

Not a lot of information is available on Chandrayaan-2 just yet, but the overall mission is similar in objectives and area of operation to the Chinese craft, Chang’e-4. Its launch date is yet to be announced, but its landing site is expected to be close to that of Chang’e-4.
Mission profile and objectives :
Chandrayaan-2, India’s second mission to the moon, will comprise an orbiter, a lander named Vikram [after the father of Indian space programme Vikram Sarabhai], and a rover.
It was supposed to be launched Thursday, but the mission was postponed.
The landing site for the Chandrayaan-2 rover is expected to be between the two craters Manzinus C and Simpelius N near the southern pole of the moon.
The orbiter will go around the moon at an altitude of 100 km, acting as a communication relay between the lander/rover and Earth.
The far side of the moon can never be in direct line-of-sight with Earth, proving direct radio communication impossible, which is why the orbiter is needed.
It will carry five instruments: A radar that will probe a few metres below the surface to detect water ice, two spectrometers to study the minerals on the surface, one that studies the lunar exosphere and a camera for geology.
The Vikram lander will perform a soft landing on the lunar surface. It consists of four payloads that will study moonquakes, heat properties of the lunar regolith (soil), the lunar surface charging due to radiation, and measure of electrons in the atmosphere when radio waves pass through it.
The six-wheeled rover will be deployed by the Vikram lander soon after landing, and will operate on solar power. It will have two cameras in the front that function as the rover’s eyes: Their combined imaging will provide a 3D visualisation of the path ahead, enabling scientists to plan its next move.
Four of its grooved wheels have independent steering, which will enable them to get unstuck from the lunar regolith. A total of 10 electric motors will help the rover navigate.
The mass of the orbiter, lander and rover respectively is expected to be 2,379 kg, 1,471 kg, and 27 kg. The mission is expected to last a year, with the lander and rover both working for about a fortnight.
The Chandrayaan mission is completely indigenous, with all parts and payloads developed by India.
China’s Eyes on the Moon :
China’s Chang’e-4 is one of the country’s six missions for lunar exploration, all of which work in pairs.
Chang’e-1 and 2 were orbiters (2007 and 2010), Chang’e-3 & 4, landers (2013 and 2019), while the fifth and sixth missions will be aimed at bringing back samples in the 2030s, with China also planning to build a lunar outpost on the south pole of Earth’s satellite.
The Chang’e-4 landing site is the Von Kármán crater in the South Pole-Aitken basin, a large impact structure believed to have formed when a big body collided with the moon. It covers nearly a quarter of the moon’s surface.
The collision is expected to have exposed the lunar mantle, the region just below the moon’s crust but above the core.
By exploring this region directly, we expect the rover to learn more about the early solar system, lunar activity, how the moon was formed, and by extension, more about how Earth was formed as well.
While Chandrayaan-2 will have an orbiter going around the moon, Chang’e will use a relay satellite in a halo orbit (orbiting an empty point in space) at the L2 Lagrange Point (points in a two-body system where the gravitational pull of the two bodies, such as Earth and the moon here, cancels out, enabling a stable orbit to ‘park’ spacecraft).
This satellite, called Queqiao, was launched earlier last year.
The lander carries with it a biosphere experiment consisting of tomato, potato and a flowering plant’s seeds, and silkworm eggs, within a sealed container.
The biosphere will function by itself, where if the eggs hatch, the carbon dioxide will feed the plants, and their photosynthesis will feed the larvae. A miniature camera will send progress images of the experiment. It carries two more cameras to map the terrain and a spectrometer to study the solar wind.
The 140-kg rover, named Yutu-2, is also solar-powered and operated by six wheels. It contains four payloads: A camera as ‘eyes’, a ground-penetrating radar similar to Chandrayaan’s, a spectrometer to identify minerals and trace gases, and an analyser to study the formation of lunar water and the interaction of the solar wind and the lunar soil.
The rover and the lander together weigh 1,200 kg. Chang’e-4 carries international payloads developed by Germany, Sweden, the Netherlands, and Saudi Arabia. The mission is expected to last a year, but Chinese scientists are confident it will go on longer.
Indo-China space race :
Both India and China are competing to race ahead in space exploration, with India targeting a second moon mission, a Venus mission, and a second Mars mission in the coming years.
China too has the same missions lined up.
As ISRO continues to announce a stream of missions, China set a world record with 38 launches in 2018.
India developed its own indigenous GPS, just as China did theirs.
The Chinese have also seen tremendous involvement of private players, raising the value of their space industry, and India is yet to play catch-up.
The Chinese space budget is estimated to be nearly Rs 56,000 crore a year, second only to the US. By contrast, India’s budget is less than Rs 10,000 crore.
Even so, 2019 looks all set to prove another exciting year for the space race brewing in Asia. (Source:defencenews.in)


The above Article can also be read using the link below:

Chang’e-4 and Chandrayaan-2 — China & India missions have similar objectives, landing site.