Showing posts with label risks. Show all posts
Showing posts with label risks. Show all posts

Friday, 17 January 2020

Climate crisis fills top five places of World Economic Forum’s risks report - Pragnya IAS Academy - News Analysis.

Climate crisis fills top five places of World Economic Forum’s risks report.

For first time, environment is at top of list of issues worrying world’s elite.

A year of extreme weather events and mounting evidence of global heating have catapulted the climate emergency to the top of the list of issues worrying the world’s elite.
The World Economic Forum’s annual risks report found that, for the first time in its 15-year history, the environment filled the top five places in the list of concerns likely to have a major impact over the next decade.
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Børge Brende, the president of the World Economic Forum, said: “The political landscape is polarised, sea levels are rising and climate fires are burning. This is the year when world leaders must work with all sectors of society to repair and reinvigorate our systems of cooperation, not just for short-term benefit but for tackling our deep-rooted risks.”
After a month in which bushfires have raged out of control in Australia, Brende said there was a need for urgent action.
“We have only a very small window and if we don’t use that window in the next 10 years we will be moving around the deckchairs on the Titanic.”
The WEF report said the retreat from the multilateral approach that helped cope with the 2008 financial crisis made it more difficult to tackle shared global risks.
It said the top five risks in terms of likelihood in the next 10 years were:
• Extreme weather events with major damage to property, infrastructure and loss of human life.
• Failure of climate-change mitigation and adaptation by governments and businesses.
• Human-made environmental damage and disasters, including environmental crime, such as oil spills and radioactive contamination.
• Major biodiversity loss and ecosystem collapse with irreversible consequences for the environment, resulting in severely depleted resources for humankind as well as industries.
• Major natural disasters such as earthquakes, tsunamis, volcanic eruptions, and geomagnetic storms.
The report was released ahead of the WEF’s annual meeting in Davos next week, which will be attended by the chief executives of some of the world’s biggest and powerful companies. Despite the large number of participants flying in to Switzerland by private jet, the WEF said Davos would be a carbon-neutral event.
But John Drzik, the chairman of Marsh & McLennan insights, which helped to compile the report, said businesses had to step up their action on global heating.
“There is mounting pressure on companies from investors, regulators, customers, and employees to demonstrate their resilience to rising climate volatility. Scientific advances mean that climate risks can now be modelled with greater accuracy and incorporated into risk management and business plans.
High-profile events, like recent bushfires in Australia and California, are adding pressure on companies to take action on climate risk at a time when they also face greater geopolitical and cyber risk challenges.”
Peter Giger, group chief risk officer of Zurich Insurance Group, which also collaborates in the preparation of the risks report, said there was a pressing need to adapt faster to avoid the worst and irreversible impacts of the climate crisis and to do more to protect the planet’s biodiversity.
“Biologically diverse ecosystems capture vast amounts of carbon and provide massive economic benefits that are estimated at $33tn (£25tn) per year – the equivalent to the GDP of the US and China combined. It’s critical that companies and policymakers move faster to transition to a low carbon economy and more sustainable business models.
“We are already seeing companies destroyed by failing to align their strategies to shifts in policy and customer preferences. Transitionary risks are real, and everyone must play their part to mitigate them. It’s not just an economic imperative, it is simply the right thing to do,” he said.


The above Article can also be read using the link below:

Climate crisis fills top five places of World Economic Forum’s risks report.

Friday, 31 August 2018

RBI flags upside risks to inflation - Pragnya IAS Academy - News Analysis.

RBI flags upside risks to inflation.

Outlook raises possibility of another rate hike, say experts The Reserve Bank of India (RBI) on Wednesday reiterated concerns over rising inflationary pressures this fiscal year due to global and domestic pressures and called for continuous vigil to keep them at bay.

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“Headline inflation, which averaged 4.8% during Q1 FY19, is likely to face upside risks over the rest of the year from a number of sources, warranting continuous vigil and a readiness to head off those pressures from getting generalized,” RBI said in its 2017-18 annual report.
It pointed out that rising global commodity prices, especially of crude oil, and recent global financial market developments are firming up input cost pressures.
It pointed out that rising global commodity prices, especially of crude oil, and recent global financial market developments are firming up input cost pressures.
Staggered impact of revisions in house rent allowance by various state governments could also pose an upside risk through second round effects, the central bank said. “Much will depend on how food prices play out and how effective are the supply management strategies,” it said.
The central bank projects headline inflation at 4.6% in Q2FY19; 4.8% in H2 and 5% in Q1 FY20, including the HRA impact for central government employees. But, excluding the impact of HRA revisions, headline inflation is forecast at 4.4% in Q2FY19; 4.7-4.8% in H2 and 5% in Q1 FY20.
Some experts believe RBI’s hawkish tone heightens the probability of another policy rate hike.
Gaurav Dua, head of research, Sharekhan by BNP Paribas said RBI appears sanguine about growth with pick-up in manufacturing and turnaround in capital formation along with strong agriculture output for the third consecutive year.
“Given the improving growth outlook and inflationary concerns, RBI is expected to toe the hawkish line and probability of another rate hike remains high,” said Dua.
Since the start of this year, RBI has raised the key repo rate by 50 basis points to 6.5% currently.
The global economy expanded at a strong pace in the first half of 2018. While activity was accompanied by tightening labour markets, firm commodity prices and resilient trade dynamics in advanced economies, the emerging markets front-ran the advanced economies in Q1 but trailed somewhat in Q2.
This, RBI said, was owing to the exit of capital flows on risk aversion generated by a “cocktail of trade wars, rising interest rates in the US, geo-political tensions and the unrelenting hardening of crude oil prices.
It added that headwinds could nonetheless rise from further tightening of financial conditions, escalation of trade tensions and intensification of geopolitical risks.
Other economists are of the opinion that since RBI is mandated to target the headline inflation as measured by the consumer price index (CPI), a rate hike is not expected.
“The central bank is mandated to maintain headline inflation at 4% (+/- 2%) in its inflation targeting regime. While the core inflation has been hardening and will likely average around 5.7-5.8% levels in FY19, the softer food inflation is expected to offset the pressures on headline CPI. As such we expect headline CPI to average closer to 4.5% in FY19,” said Shubhada Rao, chief economist at Yes Bank.
Rao explained that the impact on the economy of two back to back rate hikes in June and August will play out over two quarters. “However, in an environment of heightened global volatility, with hardening crude prices, sustained strength in the US dollar, trade wars among others, the central bank continues to remain data-dependent for reviewing the policy stance,” she added.
However, the central bank expects an acceleration of activity in the Indian economy. For instance, the initial lull in the progress of the south-west monsoon got reversed, cropping gaps are closing and agricultural production is likely to remain strong for the third consecutive year.
On the industrial front, there has been a sustained pick-up in manufacturing and mining activity, especially coal and corporates are reporting robust sales growth and improvement in profitability as pricing power returns.
“Keeping in view the evolving economic conditions, real GDP growth for 2018-19 is expected to increase to 7.4% from 6.7% in the previous year, with risks evenly balanced,” RBI said. (Source: Livemint)


The above Article can also be read using the link below:

RBI flags upside risks to inflation.