Sudden stratospheric warming may be behind recent cold weather - Pragnya IAS Academy - News Analysis.

Sudden stratospheric warming may be behind recent cold weather.

Europe and Northern Asia could be in for another ‘Beast from the East’ A dramatic meteorological event unfolding high above the North Pole may be behind very cold weather in large parts of the world currently, according to a new study.

The sudden stratospheric warming (SSW) event took place January 5, 2021, according to weather forecasting models.

The stratosphere is the layer of the atmosphere from around 10-50 kilometres above the earth’s surface.

During an SSW, polar stratospheric temperature can increase by up to 50 degrees Celsius over the course of a few days. Such events are often followed by very cold weather, especially heavy snow storms.

The study was led by researchers at the Universities of Bristol, Exeter and Bath in the United Kingdom.

They analysed 40 observed SSW events that occurred over the last 60 years and developed a novel method for tracking the signal of an SSW downward from its onset in the stratosphere to the surface, a press statement by the University of Bristol said.

There was an increased chance of extreme cold and potentially snow, over the next week or two, the lead author of the study was quoted as saying in the statement.

He added that the latest SSW was potentially the most dangerous kind, where the polar vortex split into two smaller ‘child’ vortices.

The last time an SSW event took place was the infamous 2018 ‘Beast from the East’.

“The extreme cold weather that these polar vortex breakdowns bring is a stark reminder of how suddenly our weather can flip. Even with climate change warming our planet, these events will still occur, meaning we must be adaptable to an ever more extreme range of temperatures,” Dann Mitchell, co-author of the study, was quoted as saying.

Biting winds from Siberia had brought icy and snowy conditions across the United Kingdom and Ireland for a couple of weeks and had led to several deaths.

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Sudden stratospheric warming may be behind recent cold weather.

Chilika sees record number of migratory birds amid bird flu scare - Pragnya IAS Academy - News Analysis.

Chilika sees record number of migratory birds amid bird flu scare.

A record number of migratory birds arrived this season in Odisha’s Chilika Lake, Asia’s largest brackish water lagoon, according to the latest bird census of the wetland.

This season, 1,242,826 birds belonging to 190 species were spotted compared to 1,105,040 birds of 183 species last year. Forest officials had counted 1,047,978 birds in 2019, 893,390 in 2018, 947,119 in 2017 and 761,940 in 2016 in the lagoon area.

Two rare birds — falcated teal and mallard — were sighted this time, said S Balachandran, deputy director, Bombay Natural History Society (BNHS), which assisted in the survey. The annual census was conducted by the Chilika Wildlife Division on January 5, 2021 by 120 persons, including ornithologists from BNHS, officials of wildlife organisations and wildlife activists in 21 teams.

Susant Nanda, chief executive of Chilika Development Authority (CDA), said the increase this season was due to the availability of open space after large tracts of illegal prawn gheries were cleared by the authority.

Since December 2020, hundreds of birds have died of bird flu in Kerala, Rajasthan, Himachal Pradesh and Madhya Pradesh. Taking note of this, authorities in Chilika have started collecting wet faecal droppings and serum samples from the migratory birds and poultry farms in the lake area and around Bhitarkanika National Park in Kendrapara district.

The samples will be stored in leak-proof containers and cold chains maintained by veterinary doctors and sent to Animal Disease Research Institute (ADRI) in Cuttack. From there, it will be dispatched to the high-security Animal Disease Laboratory in Bhopal, informed Sarat Chandra Mishra, assistant conservator of forest (ACF), Chilika Lake.

In January last year, the state government had sounded a bird flu alert in Bhubaneswar after the avian influenza virus was found in samples collected from dead chickens.

Since then, officials have organised awareness drives among villagers near the Bhitarkanika National Park and have been inspecting migratory birds at Bhitarkanika, Satabhaya, Hukitola and other major bird habitats with the help of mobile veterinary units.

Forest and veterinary officials are keeping an eye on species like bar-headed geese, brahminy duck, plovers, pintails, among others which are prone to carry H5N1 strain of avian influenza.

The bird flu virus does not survive in temperatures above 39 degree Celsius and so, bird flu cases are reported only in winter.

Chilika Lake, a popular birding destination, comes alive with colourful birds from Siberia, China, Japan and other far-off lands in the northern hemisphere as the lake presents them a hospitable alternative to the freezing conditions in their natural habitats.

This year, the highest number of godwall (222,009) have come to the lake and 460,116 northern pintails were spotted.

Nalabana island on the lake that houses the Nalabana Bird Sanctuary remained the favourite destination for the winged visitors, with 424,788 birds spotted.

Earlier, migratory birds were confined to this sanctuary because much of the rest of the wetland area was encroached upon by illegal prawn cultivation units.

In 2019, the Orissa high court ordered the state government to initiate demolition of these structures to restore the ecology of the area.

With around 200 square kilometre of illegal prawn gheries demolished, birds have been spotted across a larger area of the lake over the last two years.

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Chilika sees record number of migratory birds amid bird flu scare.

Meeting India’s air quality targets across South Asia may prevent 7% of pregnancy losses: Lancet study - Pragnya IAS Academy - News Analysis.

Meeting India’s air quality targets across South Asia may prevent 7% of pregnancy losses: Lancet study.

Previous studies have suggested a link between air pollution and pregnancy loss in other regions, but this is the first study to quantify the burden in South Asia.

Poor air quality is associated with a considerable proportion of pregnancy loss in India, Pakistan, and Bangladesh, according to a modelling study to be published on Thursday in The Lancet Planetary Health journal.

An estimated 349,681 pregnancy losses per year in South Asia were associated with exposure to PM2.5 concentrations that exceeded India’s air quality standard (more than 40 µg/m³), accounting for 7% of annual pregnancy loss in the region from 2000-2016.

Previous studies have suggested a link between air pollution and pregnancy loss in other regions, but this is the first study to quantify the burden in South Asia, which is the most populous region in the world and has the highest rate of pregnancy loss, Lead author on the study, Dr. Tao Xue, Peking University, China, told The Indian Express via email. Therefore, understanding the risk factors for pregnancy loss in South Asia is crucial to improving maternal health regionally and globally, he said.

“Among some of the explanations why air pollution can cause pregnancy loss is that fine particles have been reported to cross the blood placenta barrier and harm the embryo directly. Exposure to poor air quality can cause disorders such as inflammation, oxidative stress and blood pressure elevation which can act as factors to increase the risk of pregnancy loss,” Dr Tao said.

To carry out their analysis, the authors combined data from household surveys on health from 1998-2016 (from women who reported at least one pregnancy loss and one or more live births) and estimated exposure to PM2.5 during pregnancy through combining satellite with atmospheric modelling outputs. They created a model to examine how exposure to PM2.5 increased women’s risk of pregnancy loss, calculating risk for each 10 µg/m³ increased in PM2.5 after adjusting for maternal age, temperature and humidity, seasonal variation, and long-term trends in pregnancy loss.

Using this association, they calculated the number of pregnancy losses that may have been caused by PM2.5 in the whole region for the period 2000–16 and looked at how many pregnancy losses might have been prevented under India’s and WHO’s air quality standard (40 µg/m³ and 10 µg/m³, respectively).

In the study, they included 34,197 women who had lost a pregnancy, including 27,480 miscarriages and 6,717 stillbirths, which were compared to live birth controls. Of the pregnancy loss cases, 77% were from India, 12% from Pakistan, and 11% from Bangladesh.

Gestational exposure to PM2.5 was associated with an increased likelihood of pregnancy loss, and this remained significant after adjusting for other factors. Each increase in 10 µg/m³ was estimated to increase a mother’s risk of pregnancy loss by 3%. The increase in risk was greater for mothers from rural areas or those who became pregnant at an older age, compared to younger mothers from urban areas.

Although WHO’s guidelines aims for a safer level of air pollution, the authors said that India’s standard is a more realistic target level, given the high average levels of air pollution in the region and the need to balance practical governance and public health. (Source: The Indian Express)

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Meeting India’s air quality targets across South Asia may prevent 7% of pregnancy losses: Lancet study.