India Coronavirus Dispatch: What is govt's plan for vaccine side effects? - Pragnya IAS Academy - News Analysis.

India Coronavirus Dispatch: What is govt's plan for vaccine side effects?.

Supply-chain ideas that can cut vaccine waste, a virologist's views on vaccine hesitancy, how the pandemic unfolded in the country-news relevant to India's fight against Covid-19

What if you develop side effects after immunisation? The Government has a plan

It is completely normal for people to develop side effects after immunisation. In medical jargon, these side effects are called adverse events. These can be 'minor', 'severe', or 'serious', with only the last category requiring hospitalisation. In fact, vaccination drives that are underway the UK and the US have also reported adverse events, especially in people with allergies, says the writer of this article. None were 'serious'.

The top three vaccines that are currently awaiting the government's approval in India are Pfizer and BioNTech, Oxford-AstraZeneca and Bharat Biotech's Covaxin. So far, the adverse events have been 'minor' or 'severe', and the proportion of such cases has been small.

So, what is the government's plan to tackle side effects? Vaccinators are actively being trained to detect and manage adverse events. Every vaccination site will be linked to a designated adverse event management centre. The states have been asked to identify at least one such centre in each block. These adverse events will also be registered on the Co-WIN app and website, the government's new app to manage the vaccine roll-out. There are a few more measures the government is taking to tackle side effects.

How the pandemic unfolded in the country

From the first case in India reported back in January to the caseload breaching the 10 million mark, the writer of this article summarises how the pandemic unfolded in the country so far. The writer takes you through the origins of the virus in China, the lockdowns that brought economies around the world to a standstill, and the development of the vaccines at a historic pace. The writer also walks you through the grim consequences of the pandemic such as the death toll, the migrant crisis, and more. Read more here

Are Covid-19 vaccines safe and efficient? A virologist answers burning questions

Covishield being developed by Oxford-AstraZeneca and manufactured by India's Serum Institute, Covaxin being developed by Bharat Biotech, and the vaccine candidate developed by Pfizer and BioNTech are in line to receive emergency approval for Covid-19 vaccination in India. But, several large-scale surveys have indicated significant vaccine hesitancy in the general public, including among health professionals.

Dr Shahid Jameel, a virologist and the director of the Trivedi School of Biosciences at Ashoka University, answers burning questions around vaccine hesitancy, including around safety, efficacy, adverse events, and the rapid speed with which vaccine development has taken place.

What supply-chain ideas of Amazon, Walmart can help cut Covid-19 vaccine waste

Complicated storage requirements and variability in demand are two key challenges of vaccine distribution that may lead to a substantial proportion of perishable vaccines going to waste, say Tinglong Dai a professor of operations management at Johns Hopkins Carey Business School and Christopher S Tang, a distinguished professor at the University of California.

Fulfilment centres can solve the variable demand problem, the writers say. Instead of shipping the shots straight to hospitals or pharmacies, regional fulfilment centres in different districts with pooled inventory could be set up, a method practised by Amazon.

An approach called 'cross-docking', popularised by Walmart, can solve the storage requirement problem the writers say. Instead of receiving the vaccines from incoming trucks, storing them in intermediate warehouses, and then moving them from warehouses to outgoing trucks, cross-docking skips the storage step. You can move the vaccines straight from the trucks that came from airports or vaccine makers straight to the outgoing trucks that are headed to fulfilment centres.

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India Coronavirus Dispatch: What is govt's plan for vaccine side effects?.

Weather-based advance warning system for disease outbreaks in the works: Govt - Pragnya IAS Academy - News Analysis.

Weather-based advance warning system for disease outbreaks in the works: Govt.

While the model currently in development, based on the relationship between weather changes and incidence is expected to predict outbreaks of vector-borne diseases, particularly malaria and diarrhoea, subsequently, it is likely to monitor non-communicable diseases as well, they added.

MINISTRY of Earth Sciences (MoES) is developing an ‘Early Health Warning System’ which is expected to forecast the possibility of disease outbreaks in the country.

While the model currently in development, based on the relationship between weather changes and incidence is expected to predict outbreaks of vector-borne diseases, particularly malaria and diarrhoea, subsequently, it is likely to monitor non-communicable diseases as well, they added.

MoES secretary M Rajeevan told The Indian Express, “There are certain diseases where weather patterns play a crucial role. Such as malaria, for which particular temperatures and rainfall patterns can approximately predict whether an area is likely to have an outbreak with fairly reasonable accuracy. What we are looking at is an advance warning of around two weeks.”

Changes in rainfall and temperature patterns likely play a major role in the increased incidence of these diseases across geographical locations.

“We can predict the likelihood of heat-related diseases as well as diseases such as cholera,” he said, adding that such a system, when deployed, would give local authorities ample time to prepare.

To verify the robustness of the advance warning system, a detailed analysis was carried out earlier this year of malaria and diarrhoea cases in two districts of Maharashtra, Pune and Nagpur.

The study found that while both districts have incidences of both diseases, Nagpur reports a higher number of malaria cases while diarrhoea cases are higher in Pune.

The analysis has also found that temporal and spatial variability in weather parameters, for example, a short-term increase in temperature and rainfall as an effect of El-Niño can lead to malaria epidemics.

Meanwhile, an Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change noted in its 2007 report that climate change may increase the risk of diarrhoeal diseases, which is of major concern in developing countries, with increasing incidents of floods as well as drought.

“We are starting with vector-borne diseases because there are direct links to such weather patterns. There have been some studies and analysis on weather patterns affecting the spread of viral diseases — especially with the advent of the Covid-19 pandemic, but this is a far more complex disease and we have been unable to establish a certain link between such diseases and the weather,” said D R Patnaik of the IMD, who is involved in the project. (Source: The Indian Express)

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Weather-based advance warning system for disease outbreaks in the works: Govt

Kerala to get cyclone warning centre, another Doppler radar - Pragnya IAS Academy - News Analysis.

Kerala to get cyclone warning centre, another Doppler radar.

At present, the India Meteorological Centre (IMD) has six cyclone warning centres in Chennai, Visakhapatnam, Bhubaneswar, Kolkata, Ahmedabad and Mumbai.

The Union Ministry of Earth Sciences has announced it will set up a cyclone warning centre in Kerala and boost weather forecasting in the state with another Doppler radar.
The new centre will be set up in Thiruvananthapuram. At present, India Meteorological Centre (IMD) has six cyclone warning centres, four along the east coast at Chennai, Visakhapatnam, Bhubaneswar and Kolkata, and two along the west coast at Ahmedabad and Mumbai.
“In view of the recent heavy rainfall, and concerns over extreme weather activities in future, the ministry has decided to set up another centre, which will provide regular coastal bulletins and heavy rainfall alerts. This will enable the state to prepare better in case of developing low-pressure and further strengthen the present forecasting activity of the IMD’s existing office in Thiruvananthapuram,” said Kamaljeet Ray, scientist at the Ministry of Earth Sciences.
According to officials, the centre will be equipped with state- of-the-art forecasting tools to provide daily weather alerts and coastal warnings. It is expected to be functional within a month.
The ministry has also proposed setting up another C-band Doppler weather radar at Mangalore to provide “nowcast” alerts for severe weather, including thunderstorms triggered by heavy rain for the next 2-3 hours.
The radar, which costs Rs 3 crore, will cover northern Kerala and Karnataka and is expected to be installed by the end of next year.
Currently, there are two Doppler radars in the state, at Kochi and Thiruvananthapuram, which cover the central and southern districts, respectively. With the addition of another radar, the entire state will be covered for monitoring rainfall and severe weather events.
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IMD has developed many new models and tools right from nowcasts (2-3 hours) to extended range forecasts (15-20 days’ lead time).
“Thunderstorms are easily captured by radar. The track can be seen and warning can be issued three hours ahead. Since they are formed in association with heavy rains and cyclones, these radars are extremely useful links before severe weather affects the state,” said Ray. (Source: Livemint)


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Kerala to get cyclone warning centre, another Doppler radar.

Climate change warning: One-fifth of global deaths due to flooding in India - Pragnya IAS Academy - News Analysis.

Climate change warning: One-fifth of global deaths due to flooding in India.

As many as 107,487 people died due to heavy rains and floods across India over 64 years between 1953 and 2017.

India accounts for one-fifth of global deaths due to floods, according to government data that lend perspective to a new World Bank study that says climate change will lower the standards of living ofnearly half of India’s population by 2050.
As many as 107,487 people died due to heavy rains and floods across India over 64 years between 1953 and 2017, according to Central Water Commission data presented to the Rajya Sabha (Parliament’s upper house) on March 19, 2018. Damage to crops, houses and public utilities was reported to be Rs 365,860 crore–or as much as 3% of India’s current gross domestic product–the data show.
“The main reasons of floods have been assessed as high-intensity rainfall in short duration, poor or inadequate drainage capacity, unplanned reservoir regulation and failure of flood control structures,” according to the reply to the Rajya Sabha.
With heavy rains sweeping western India, many cities such as Mangaluru, Mumbai and Junagarh have flooded during the 2018 monsoon season. Over 30 people died in floods that inundated 58 villages, The Times of India reported on July 7, 2018.
Climate change will exacerbate flooding
“Temperatures have been rising across the [South Asia] region, and are projected to continue increasing for the next several decades under all plausible climate scenarios,” the World Bank study, published on June 28, 2018, said.
These changes will result in more frequent flooding, greater water demand and increased heat-related medical issues.
South Asian cities such as Kolkata, Mumbai, Dhaka and Karachi–that are home to over 50 million people–face a substantial risk of flood-related damage over the next century, the report said.
India is one of the world’s most vulnerable regions to climate change. It has increased the frequency of downpours as well as the gaps between rainy days during the monsoon, as IndiaSpend reported in January 2018 and February 2018.
As India’s climate warms, extreme weather, such as intense rain and floods, is predicted to worsen.
The new World Bank study mentioned above said the worst affected states by 2050 would be Chhattisgarh and Madhya Pradesh.
Seven of the 10 most affected districts will belong to Vidarbha, Maharashtra.
India could see a six-fold increase in population exposed to the risk of severe floods by 2040–to 25 million people from 3.7 million facing this risk between 1971 and 2004, IndiaSpend reported in February 2018, based on a study published in Science Advances, a peer-reviewed journal.
“India is highly vulnerable to floods,” according to the National Disaster Management Authority, a government body. “Out of the total geographical area of 329 million hectares (mha), more than 40 mha is flood prone.”
Most deaths (11,316) due to floods/heavy rains in India were reported in 1977, while the least were recorded in 1953 (37). (Source: The Business Standard)


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Climate change warning: One-fifth of global deaths due to flooding in India.